Tropical Weather Forecast: Kate To Become A Hurricane
Satellite loops show that Tropical Storm Kate has gotten stronger as the tropical storm accelerates away from the Bahamas and begins moving North Northeastward off our shoreline. You can see on the loop the distinct separate feature that the hurricane is from the coastal low pressure area that is bringing us clouds and rain today.
Based on the most recent visible pictures it is quite possible that Tropical Storm Kate is very close to becoming a hurricane.
URNT12 KNHC 101319 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122015 A. 10/12:56:30Z B. 29 deg 43 min N 075 deg 12 min W C. 850 mb 1440 m D. 44 kt E. 140 deg 9 nm F. 241 deg 63 kt G. 141 deg 10 nm H. 1002 mb I. 18 C / 1520 m J. 24 C / 1529 m K. 16 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF307 0312A KATE OB 04 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 68 KT 111 / 10 NM 13:01:10Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 310 / 33 KT
...KATE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 75.8W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM NNE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
The above vortex report shows a max flight level wind of 68 knots and a pressure of 1002 mb which is down from yesterday. This certainly supports winds of 50 to 60 kts at the surface.
The one thing that has changed regarding the forecast logic with Tropical Storm Kate is that it now apppears the hurricane will absorb the coastal low and become a large post tropical storm in the Atlantic. All the computer models are coming around to this idea so that should make for a strong system that will be moving to the northeast and into the open waters. You can see it on the GFS here as the non tropical low is southeast of Cape Cod and the soon to be hurricane is southeast of the low center. They become one after this timeframe.