Tropical Weather Forecasts: Depression 12 Close To Tropical Storm Strength..Upgrade to Tropical Storm Kate to be issued shortly!
Air force aircraft penetrated Tropical Depression 12 this morning and found that the system is close to tropical storm strength with a maximum wind of 50 knots at flight level and 34 kts near the surface so it is pretty close. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Central and Northern Bahamas but it has been discontinued for the Southeastern Bahamas. Satellite pics overnight and this morning show an continued increase convection and a pretty well developed low level circulation. The information from the aircraft and satellite loops indicate that an upgrade to Tropical Storm will be released by the National Hurricane Center shortly. All computer model guidance suggests the system will strengthen some more over the next 48 hours as it is over warm ocean water and a minimal shearing environment. Given the time of year it is always possible that the system could become a strong tropical storm but after 48 hours conditions will become unfavorable.
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 75.0W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF CAT ISLAND BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas There has been no change in the forecast logic behind the future of Tropical Depression 12. As a tropical storm the system is forecast to skim the Bahamas and then gradually turn to the north and northeast. Low pressure developing in the southeast US will move northeast and gradually absorb this tropical storm beyond the 72 hour period. The track offshore means there is no threat to the United States. SHORT RANGE FORECAST LONG RANGE FORECAST