Tropical Weather Forecast: 2 Systems To Watch
We discussed last night in our tropical weather forecast that the weather forecast models were pointing to the possible development of a tropical system in the Atlantic east of the Bahamas over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center is highlighting this in their discussion this morning along with a second system in the Northwest Caribbean Sea which will head into the Gulf of Mexico.
The Atlantic system is not yet apparent on the satellite loop however you can see the clouds moving into the Leeward Islands as a tropical wave approaches there and this may be the system that eventually finds its way north of Hispaniola. In the Northwest Caribbean you can see the arc of clouds there with a little cyclonic turning possibly indicitave of some sort of mid level circulation. Both systems are for time being moving to the west.
The gfs weather forecast models from the last few days have been very consistent. The two systems show up on the forecast map for Saturday morning. There is a cold front approaching coastal Texas at the same time and this could wind up preventing the Gulf of Mexico system from developing though it does bring heavy rains to the Texas and Louisiana Coast. This is the same cold front that will be passing through here Friday night and cooling things back to normal over the weekend and into next week. Along the east coast the weather forecasting models do create low pressure off the Carolina’s which is going to be a separate feature from any Atlantic tropical system that might develop.
Needless to say it will be something to watch over the next few days. November tropical storms are not unusual and do happen every other year on average. Given that there really hasn’t been a major Canadian front that has moved off the east coast, the water temperatures south of 35 degrees north are still relatively warm though recently they have cooled down some off their peaks from just a month ago. We will address this again later today once we get a good luck at what all the weather forecasting models do this afternoon.