Coastal flooding Long Island and New Jersey at high tide today will be minimal with tides running about 1 foot above normal which will probably only impact the most vulnerable of spots and not cause any major issues.
The severe thunderstorm risk continues into the first part of tonight however the main threat for thunderstorms will be this evening until the early morning hours. Overnight over running rain to the south pretty much fell apart however the radar is showing increasing rain across Pennsylvania southeast to Delmarva and that should get in here this afternoon and evening until the front sweeps on through.
Winds have been picking up from the south and are running at about 15 to 25 mph with some just to 30 along coastal areas. Gale Warnings remain in effect for marine areas today into tonight until the front comes through and winds shift to the west later tonight.
Rainfall forecast amounts remain in the 1 to 2 inch range with some locally higher amounts. The GFS model rainfall has been pretty consistent. The nam model is on the lower end and looks to be more convective in nature. Higher amounts are trending a little north and northwest of the coast.
Warm air coming in tonight will boost temperatures up into and through the 60s. Midnight temperatures are all forecast to be in the low to mid 60s in most places. Rainfall has been cut back a little from yesterday. Not getting the over running rain this morning and early afternoon scales the amounts back by about half an inch or so.
The very dry pattern continues to dominate the weather scene so that anytime it rains, even in the most dynamic of situations (such as they are) have underperformed relative to what forecast models have produced which is typical in dry patterns. Each one affords the hope of out performance only to have it come in at half to three quarters of what is predicted. We do need the rain. The convective nature of all this does allow for some exceptions so we will just have to wait and see what the radar looks like later this afternoon and evening. The nam presentation of the radar at 2am shows 2 distinct lines of showers potentially moving through in the early morning hours. However at this point it does look rather underwhelming.
Thursday day side we will dry out and it will be mild with highs reaching into the 70s before cooler air moves in for Friday and Saturday. Sunshine for both those days is forecast but temperatures will not be out of the 50s. Halloween looks dry.