Flood is the word for Texas today as we have low pressure developing near Brownsville that is absorbing all the hurricane moisture from once Hurricane Patricia which is now a tropical depression. You can see the impressive visible satellite view and the distinct twist in the clouds marking the core circulation of Patricia. It will be interesting to see what happens when it moves offshore. Models have the actual surface low staying just off shore near the coast and moving from Texas to just south of New Orleans. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are still very warm as no major cold front has moved through the area this fall.
Tropical or not there is going to be a very tight pressure gradient there and coastal flooding will be a big issue for the entire Texas coast for the next 2 days.
The Corpus Christi Texas Radar below shows the massive coverage of rains there and some areas will receive 6 to 12 inches of rain before this is all said and done.
The Brownsville radar is another one we should keep an eye on as once the core circulation Patricia arrives in its view we may be able to see how much is left of it and what happens when low pressure emerges into the Gulf Of Mexico. The moisture feed is streaming up from the southwest and if an intact circulation is there you will see it as echo’s will be moving in a counter clockwise fashion around the circulation center.
The GFS rainfall forecast map to me is a little bit misleading and underdone in many areas. I don’t think it is doing a good job in allowing for the tropical moisture from Hurricane Patricia. It seems to me that 6 to 12 inches of rain from Brownsville to Port Arthur north and west is a pretty good bet from all of this. Now the big question for us is how much of this makes it our way and if it is enough to give us a lousy couple of inches of rain. Only rained here once in the last 3 weeks. More on this later this afternoon.
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