Since last night when Patricia went from minimal tropical storm to almost a hurricane it was evident that the hurricane was strengthening rapidly and that trend has continued today. The National Hurricane Center confirms that Patricia has become a major hurricane with top winds of 130 mph and conditions are favorable for further strengthening into tonight. Hurricane Warnings are posted for parts of the west coast of Mexico. The eye is apparent on the visible satellite picture this afternoon and it has the signature of a major hurricane.
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND PATRICA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 104.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana
We are interested in this because the upper flow is taking Patricia north and then northeast and while the tropical circulation will not survive the moisture and the tropical moisture feed will take it into the Western Gulf of Mexico.
The trough will become phased according to the European and produce a solid soaking rain for us beginning later Wednesday night of next week through Thursday night; at least that is the plan according to the European model run at this point. I will have a full analysis on the European sometime this evening.
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