The weather world is always interesting even in quiet patterns. There always seems to be something to watch somewhere. Right now and we have Hurricane Oho in the Pacific east of Hawaii and moving northeast. Hurricane Oho started southwest of the islands and has been on a rather unusual northeast coast thanks to the very deep trough that extends southward from the Gulf of Alaska. What is interesting for us is how it gets eventually absorbed by that upper low as it moves northwest to the Aleutians. That upper low strengthens and allows for some troughing in the eastern states which is the cold front that arrives here on Friday. However the action in the east is not all that inspiring so other than a few showers there probably won’t be much more to worry about as we head into the holiday weekend
There will be a shot of cooler air to start the holiday weekend. Saturday will be cool with temperatures only in the low to mid 60s at best for highs and Saturday night should be quite cool with 40s just about everywhere. The trough in the east flattens and pulls out rather quickly, the cold air moderates fast Sunday into Monday with sunshine both days. Highs will be in the mid 60s Sunday and into the 70s on Monday.
Longer term beyond Monday the models both the European model and the GFS model are showing a colder than normal look from the middle of next week on but they disagree on how cool and how fast it cools down. The gfs is actually rather aggressive and would argue for the first frosts later next week. The European takes a little longer to get there but ultimately it does.
Side by side the European and GFS models have the trough in the east ridge in the west idea for late next week though the daily details wind up being a little different. Bottom line is that both models have a colder look which has been advertised for a few days so we will go along with this idea.
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