Air Force recon after the advisory was issued shows that the 1mb per hour deepening rate continues and the lowest pressure is 950 mb with a flight level wind of 117 kts or 135 mph being measured which measures to 105/110 kts sustained. Further strengthening will continue overnight and Hurricane Joaquin could wind up as a category 4 when it peaks out.
...JOAQUIN BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 73.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES
A couple of things here that should be noted. First off is the system to the east northeast of Hurricane Joaquin is a system that has been sitting out there that are the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida which have been getting better organized. If this system develops it could have an impact on the ultimate course of Hurricane Joaquin. Also we have the overnight GFS run that has changed its course and takes the hurricane now to New Jersey Long Island instead of the Carolinas. We discussed tonight on our GFS discussion that this shift could be a trend to the out to sea European however we won’t know the answer to this until the new European run comes out. The satellite loop above shows all the players with the cold front stalled off the Atlantic seaboard and the almost cloud free shear free environment that Hurricane Joaquin sits in at the moment. Needless to say all attention will be on the European model when it comes out in 2 hours. It is usually done by 3am eastern time.
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