JOESTRADAMUS posted yesterday regarding a “possible” pattern change and he remains rather cautious about this since we have been down this road on the models a few times but it seems that today’s runs are pointing to a breakdown in the persistent ridge in the east and trough off the west coast to something colder and possibly more dynamic though the specifics at this point are better left for the short range. Im more focused here on the overall change that may be taking place.
A week from the day the European has a fairly dynamic look to it as troughing returns to the east. Again Im less concerned her about the specifics and more on the general change. The model wraps up a deep low in the North Atlantic which causes dramatic rises in pressure aloft (height rises) in Eastern Canada and lowering pressures in the east. This would imply something regarding some much needed rain if it plays out like this. Beyond day 10 the stage may be settting up for colder weather in the east as long as that deep low in the North Atlantic holds.
The GFS which carries beyond day 10 has a different and less dynamic approach but beyond 240 it drives deep troughing in the east and ridging in the west which definitely would be a colder look.
If this plays out we will begin to see dramatic weather changes in the east beginning about a week from now. The pattern seems rather blocky. Long term signals continue to show the Atlantic Oscillation going negative. What JOESTRAMAUS hopes is that this leads to opportunities for some much needed rain and a much wetter pattern down the road as me move through October. Obviously this can evolve in all sorts of ways. What we don’t want is colder and dry. The bottom line is that the model is trying to go to a much colder look and has done so for a few runs. Let’s see if we can get a few more runs like this before we grow more confident.
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