The weather system in the central tropical atlantic has become Tropical Depression 9 with top winds of about 30 mph. If you look at the loop below it is already beginning to taste the effects of strong shearing to the north. This afternoon the thunderstorms have weakened and the circulation looks very distorted. Since it is moving to the north northwest right into the area of intense shear, tropical depression nine will probably meet a quick death in the next 48 hours or so.
The second system behind it is well organized and it looks like a circulation is forming there so this should be tropical depression 10 before too long. It has some time to strengthen into a tropical storm before…yes it runs into the same shearing pattern that is forecast to be there probably for the next 10 days or more with only slight variations from time to time. On the visible satellite picture this afternoon this system actually looks healthier than tropical depression 9!
Some of the models this afternoon continue to indicate that the tropical Atlantic systems will develop into tropical cyclones however the models have been doing this on and off for awhile so we don’t find those models reliable at all. The issue is that it has incorporated those cyclones in how it figures out the long range and this has led to all sorts of models swings.
I still believe that if anything is going to happen it will probably be more of the home grown variety.
For the latest on the local forecast outlook for the next week click on my European discussion
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