RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES DENTS DRY CONDITIONS

rainfallmapIn the final analysis the rainfall totals  from yesterday on the whole performed pretty well and it least models performed evenly (for the most part). There were a few holes yesterday in the Hudson Valley where some areas got as little as a quarter of an inch. Also Central Suffolk County in a small got less than they did on either side. Most area rainfall totals did well with 1 to 3 inches and a few pockets of 4 inches. Every drop is good. Now we look ahead to the next round of rain later Saturday and Saturday night. StormTotalQPFFHere is the National Weather Service forecast for the rain coming for late Saturday into Sunday morning. There may be some lingering showers during the day on Sunday as well as the cold upper trough comes through. This trough is actually pretty strong and I still wonder whether there could be some out performance with the rain out of this. I would like to see it the trough more north south or ideally “negative” or oriented northwest to southeast. But you have what you have so we will see how it plays. Rain could be moving into areas west of New York City as early as 2pm Saturday and it should be raining everywhere by Saturday evening.

gfs54Bear in mind that after this weekend this could be the last chance for rain for at least a week. We will be in a ridge position in the east for a week to 10 days. That means that it will be dry for the most part and temperatures will run well above normal for the most part. There will be a cold front or two that will back in from the north that will probably cut any heat off before it gets out of hand. Also a lot will depend on wind direction and day to day cloud cover in determining daytime highs. But it will be warm and dry this week ahead. Temperatures should reach back into the 80s as early as Tuesday and well into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

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