This has been a very good example of how things don’t always play out as models show them. Yes we have seen some heavy rains and some areas picked up over 3 inches. However the widespread rain that was indicated for the overnight period did not evolve the way the models showed. Late this evening the radars began to show weakening of the western areas of rain and the energy shifting offshore to the developing wave. Heavy rains shifted to the east and out in the ocean. While these rains are moving to eastern Long Island and Central Connecticut, the rains in the west weakened.
Flash Flood Watch continues for Central and Eastern Connecticut and for Long Island but mainly the risk is for Suffolk County. Elsewhere the rains have dimished and in some places have all but ended.
Friday we will see genuine improvement in sky conditions with some sunshine and humidity levels will come down somewhat. Saturday we will look ahead to a strong trough swinging out of the midwest and with it some showers and thunderstorms. There will be some heavy downpours with this however again given the fact that we are in a drought, forecasters will be looking for under performance. This by the way will be the last rain threat for quite awhile as the models all show the east coast ridge building back up and that means a return to very warm weather depending on wind direction and clouds. Also there could be a cold front that will make it through here by the end of next week which might bring some relief to much above normal. Instead we will go to just near or above normal if and when that happens. This might be the way it stays until late in the month when we could see a more pronounced pattern change. As for the tropics there is nothing to indicate the pattern of weak activity will change given the strong shearing conditions that exist throughout much of the tropics and subtropics.
This picture was taken at Floyd Bennet Field yesterday as a strong thunderstorm moved through. Quite impressive indeed.