Shear is really taking its toll on Erika and judging from this loop this is barely a tropical storm or it may be a tropical depression. The recon aircraft was able to close off a center but the pressure is up to 1009 mb. Winds were under gale force that I saw. And the circulation is on the northern edge of the convection which is primarily south of the islands at this point. Also this center if it survives is going to go over part of Hispaniola which which take its toll even more. We have been saying all along that Erika needs to get past 65-70 west in order to get out of the shearing environment. It has been our experience that models tend to over relax sheer and that if it is present it tends to stay longer then forecast and this is indeed the case here.

I think it is highly doubtful that Erika gets beyond tropical storm or even minimal tropical storm as it heads west northwest. The weaker system means that the track will be further south and west overall. If it survives it could mean a track over or just offshore western Florida which would mean rain. Without development it will not be a huge deal in my view.  Rain will be the focus for Puerto Rico and The Dominican Republic today and tonight.