The visible satellite loop this morning shows that the trend of slow organization seems to be continuing as there is a fairly large area of convection that has developed and maintained itself overnight. Recon plane reports from earlier confirm this as winds have increased slightly. Erika is making its way to the northern half of the Leeward Island and tropical storm conditions will be spreading over the islands this afternoon and evening. Though this is a tropical storm it is a minimal one at this point and we should bear that in mind with regards to weather conditions expected for those islands and later on possibly for Puerto Rico.
..ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Once all the afternoon model packages are done, Joestradamus will have his opinion on what may happen down the road and the threat Erika could be to Florida or the Southeast coast of the US. In the meantime you can read yesterday’s Joestradamus post on this or this morning’s Joe’s forecast on latest ideas on what could happen over the weekend.