SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 53.3W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
Danny has continued to weaken and is now a minimal hurricane as shear continues to take its toll on the hurricane. The satellite clearly shows Danny has weakened. It is likely to be downgraded to a tropical storm overnight. The hurricane has become elongated north south and the convection is weakening. It wouldn’t be a big surprised to see the low level center eventually exposedllll
Tropical storm watches are up for the islands and other islands to the west are on alert. But you have to wonder how much of this storm is going to be left if it can’t escape the shearing environment down the road.
The Hurricane Center forecast is a little further north than the prior one. For those of you concerned about the islands bear in mind 2 thiings. The first is that the storm is small and forecast to weaken. It could pass close to the islands and you might not even know it. Secondly as it gets weaker the convection may get sheared away to the point that there is nothing left but a low cloud swirl with a few thunderstorms. The path is close to the islands which means the terrain will further disrupt the circulation.
If it survives and what is left are key questions for the long range as it approaches the Bahamas and possibly Florida. But this is in the land of speculation at this point.