Overnight models are pretty consistent. Some runs cut back..some add rainfall. The thing that i noticed in the early morning update run was that the front approaches faster and then slows down along the coast with a little wave that develops on it. This prolongs the rain along the immediate coast for another 3 to 6 hours which could make a nice added difference to the rainfall amounts.
You can see the beginnings of this at 2pm Tuesday as the isobars (lines of equal pressure) begin to stretch south southwestward. It doesn’t take much to slow things down. Notice that for the period ending 8pm there is precip all over the place again so it stands to reason that we will get a shot of downpours..then a break…followed by another shot in the afternoon and tomorrow evening. If we can get a few heavy downpours to sit around awhile we could cut the rainfall deficit in half which would be great.
The weather service is forecasting 1 to 2 inch rainfall for the New York/Northern New Jersey/Southern Connecticut zones which is in line with what I’m seeing. I’m betting on some local amounts over 2 inches out of this.
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