Hurricane Watch Southeast Louisiana Marco Further East
Laura Marches Westward Dominican Republic
Tropical Storm Marco is moving north northwest after making an eastward jog today. It is moving through the Yucatan Channel and not over it so it is able to maintain strength as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. This eastward jog has resulted from an opening around the back side of a strong upper high to the northeast and a deep trough in the Western Gulf of Mexico. The path of least resistance for now is north northwest or even northward at least through Sunday.
5PM LOCATION…21.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 540 MI…870 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.
The National Hurricane Center acknowledges the developments this afternoon regarding track and strength and has adjusted its forecast track to the right of the previous forecast. The uncertainty remains high in both track and strength. Hurricane track models continue to show a wide spread of possibilities of landfall.
Landfall timing right now looks to be Monday afternoon or evening along the Central Gulf coast however should the north northwest track continue for a longer period another shift in the forecast could occur. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Laura has brought drenching rains to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and those rains are now spreading into the Dominican Republic.
5PM LOCATION…18.0N 68.1W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque, The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic, The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, and Granma.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for The central Bahamas, Andros Island, Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay
Laura has to cross all the islands in the Greater Antillies over the next 2 days so it probably won’t change much in strength until it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico Monday night where conditions are favorable for strengthening. Here too the spread among the hurricane forecast models has widened somewhat thanks to the same upper high that is driving Marco. Landfall timing for Laura looks to be sometime Wednesday afternoon.
Small changes in the strength of this high will be a big deal regarding intensity and track over the next few days so I would expect more adjustments and changes in the outlook over the next two days. We can say that thanks to a strong northwest flow developing in the Eastern US next week, neither storm will be affecting our weather here in the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic states. Meanwhile the potential for two landfalls in two days from two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico ( and possibly in the same place) are high.
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