Hurricane Warnings Parts of East Florida
Catastrophic Hurricane Dorian Over Great Abaco Island 185 MPH Category 5
We have been watching satellite loops with awe this afternoon and evening of Hurricane Dorian which is an historic category 5 hurricane. It is the strongest hurricane ever in the Northwestern Bahamas with a pressure of 910 mb and top winds of 185 mph with gusts over 200 mph. The eye of Dorian moved over Great Abaco Island near Elbow Cay. Dorian continues to move to the west but it has slowed down now to 5 mph and seems to be behaving on track. The upper ridge is weakening and upper air steering winds continue to collapse. Dorian will slow to a crawly and may not emerge from the Bahamas until sometime Tuesday when it begins to move more to the north.
The track of Dorian will likely remain offshore the East Coast of Florida but the eye will come close to land..possibly within 50 or 60 miles. The hurricane’s wind field will begin to expand as it moves up the coast. Therefore the National Hurricane Center has issued Hurricane Warnings from just north of Jupiter Inlet to near Sebastian Inlet. There will be gales developing along the immediate coast Monday night and Tuesday as well as tidal flooding and beach erosion. Rain is also likely once the hurricane begins its northward motion.
While watching the loops this evening it appears we may be seeing an eye wall replacement cycle getting underway. This is where the eye shrinks and the wall collapses and a new eye wall develops. Often times you see an eye within an eye. While the cycle is underway the pressures will fluctuate and it could take 6 to 18 hours to complete. It would seem that we are a peak strength with Dorian right now and it should maintain that strength for awhile longer. Interaction with the Bahamas will cause a bit of weakening. Once Dorian starts moving northward and the storm expands, we will see the storm weaken gradually. It can’t hold on to this extreme strength forever and the ocean water temperatures further north while warm, are not supportive in maintaining a category 5 hurricane for a long period of time.
Local radar from Miami shows some of the western squalls moving northeast to southwest as we see the circulation of Dorian controlling the flow. What has been coming ashore on the mainland of Florida as been some downpours that really don’t stand out much than on any other September day in South Florida.
LOCAL RADAR MIAMI
There really isn’t any important change in the forecast logic going forward. Dorian will move northward and then turn northeastward bring heavy rains and wind to the Georgia and South Carolina coast for midweek. We will likely see some sort of watches and warnings eventually being put up for parts of the Southeast coast in the next day or so.
The European model this afternoon is consistent with other models bringing the center to within 50 or so miles from the coast and then to the South Carolina coast Thursday morning, the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday morning and then northeast from there well south and east of Cape Cod by Saturday morning. We will be looking at the weather risks from this beginning Monday morning as we get better visibility on timing and track.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.