Hurricane Matthew Warnings Florida East Coast
THE SUDDEN FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE TO THE EAST OF HURRICANE MATTHEW COULD CREATE A RATHER BIZZARE SCENARIO
For those of you who were asking me about Tropical Storm Nicole and if it meant anything…well guess what. YOU HAVE YOUR ANSWER!
And boy it is quite BIZZARE!
Hurricane Matthew Warnings Florida East Coast
The National Hurricane Center has raised Hurricane Warnings for a portion of the Florida East Coast from just north of Miami to just north of Vero Beach with a Hurricane Watch extending northward to just north of Daytona Beach. Hurricane Matthew is now moving off the east coast of Cuba and heading into the Bahamas where Hurricane Warnings are in effect as well. While the hurricane has weakened slightly it still remains a formidable Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.
Once Matthew clears Cuba and begins its north north west path it will be moving over ocean water temperatures that are above 86 degrees. The upper air shearing environment remains very low and conditions are favorable for gradual strengthening. Hurricane Matthew could easily attain category 4 status again as it approaches the Florida east coast.
HURRICANE MATTHEW GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE
The new GFS model run shifted further left again to where it brings the hurricane right on the coast in the northern portion of the warning area before edging it just offshore again southeast of Jacksonville.
HURRICANE MATTHEW GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING
The structure of this upper air trough on the GFS model is completely different then what was depicted over the last week or so. The lack of depth and broadness of the jet stream would suggest that Matthew would only be able to get so far north before being ejected out to the east northeast. In fact trough is so broad that it may not be able to pick up Matthew at all. To the east of Matthew is Tropical Storm Nicole which may also block it from moving east. The European and UKMET modelS today depicted Matthew moving east and then turning south and then southwest and finding its way back to the Florida east coast early next week. The GFS may not be quite there yet but the European and UKMET models may be on to something. It appears the threat to the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states has been reduced to almost zero on this particular run. Obviously we would need confirmations from the other models but it stands to reason that if they showed it this afternoon, they will likely show something similar overnight when those models arrive. This is beginning to turn into something utterly bizzare. We will be putting up a second post to address the issues of the northeast and the future of Hurricane Matthew in a separate post and video shortly.
GFS HURRICANE MATTHEW CLICK TO ANIMATE
BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 ...THE EYE OF POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 74.4W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watches from Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet, and for Lake Okeechobee, have been changed to Hurricane Warnings. The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia county line. The Tropical Storm Watch from Seven Mile Bridge to Golden Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been added from Chokoloskee to Ocean Reef, and for Florida Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti * Turks and Caicos Islands * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), radar data from Guantanamo, Cuba, along with reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, indicate that the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 74.4 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew will be moving through the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts, but Matthew remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of Haiti. Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over eastern Cuba, and will begin in the southeastern Bahamas by Wednesday morning, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the remainder of Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring in portions the Dominican Republic within the warning area, and these conditions will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition should reach the tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew are also affecting portions of the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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