Hurricane Matthew Shifts Westward On GFS Model
HURRICANE MATTHEW VIDEO FROM EARLIER TODAY ON OVERNIGHT MODELS
Hurricane Matthew Shifts Westward On GFS Model
THIS IS A MODEL OUTPUT AND NOT MY FORECAST
The latest GFS model run shifts Hurricane Matthew westward and by a significant amount. Yesterday afternoon the UK Met model which is the British weather model and tends to perform well, showed Hurricane Matthew literally straddling the coast from Florida to South Carolina. It was the furthest west of all the models.
The shift westward on the GFS is about on the order of 2 degrees or so which is about 120 miles. If this is the case it does put the coastal Carolinas at risk for at least a very close call or a possible landfall across the Outer Banks of North Carolina sometime early Saturday.
When you look at the upper air profile the trough to the west and Hurricane Matthew seem to be timing out in a way that would bring this up the east coast just offshore.
Now remember this is one model and one run that has been flipping back and forth, back and forth for days. But we are now inside 6 days here. We should also strongly point out that if this is correct, Hurricane Matthew would behave like a very strong nor’easter and bring heavy rain and wind here, but it would not be like a landfalling hurricane with a direct hit. In fact the shifting of the heavy rain bands on the west side of the low indicates to me that the model is forecasting a transition to a post tropical system once it begins to interact with the upper air energy to the west.
We will post more about this later today and come up with a better idea of how real this is once we look at the entire model sequence.
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