Hurricane Matthew Pounding Georgia South Carolina Coasts
Hurricane Matthew Pounding Georgia South Carolina Coasts
Heavy Rains 6 Inches or More
Strong Winds Along The Coast
Hurricane Matthew continues moving northward parallel and just offshore the Georgia South Carolina coast. Satellite loops and radars indicate that Matthew continues to becoming slowly less organized. It no longer has the appearance of an intense hurricane. The cloud shield is spreading out. The rains with Matthew continue to spread inland and west of the circulation center. This is creating a less concentrated area of strong winds like it had when it moved up the Florida coast. However it also means that gales have spread further inland. Winds along the coast are running 40 to 50 mph with higher gusts as of midnight.
Three local radar views below show the western edge of the eye very close to shore again. You can see the extent of the rain and this is why 6 inches or more of rain is likely to fall and some areas could receive 10 inches of rain before Matthew moves away later Saturday and Saturday night.
The eye is visible on the radar views but notice that the southeastern quadrant is completely open. This is a sign that the character of Hurricane Matthew is slowly changing though it is still a tropical storm.
HURRICANE MATTHEW FRIDAY 11PM ADVISORY
BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 ...EYE OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUING NORTHWARD JUST OFF OF THE COAST OF GEORGIA... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 80.5W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * north of Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of Georgia through tonight, near or over the coast of South Carolina later tonight and Saturday, and near the coast of southern North Carolina on Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near the coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 41008 located off of the Georgia coast recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Georgia tonight, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions in northeastern Florida should subside tonight. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina... 5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the Volusia/Brevard county line, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from eastern Georgia into eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in life threatening flooding and flash flooding. Rains will continue to diminish across northern Florida tonight with additional amounts up to an inch possible. TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible near the South Carolina coast for the remainder of tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Hurricane Matthew Model Outlook
When we look at the models tonight the solutions are all over the place ranging from moving it northeastward from the Carolinas and taking it to the Canadian Maritime Provinces to merging it with the cold front moving offshore and turning it post tropical to orchestrating the loop southward to even being absorbed by Tropical Storm Nicole. The spaghetti plots of the hurricane models reflect this confusion
We are going to stick with the global model solutions which is to take Matthew on a clockwise loop southward and then southwestward though where it ultimately winds up is anyone’s guess at this point.
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK VIDEOS
In case you missed them I’ve been previewing the upcoming winter in a series of posts and videos. Here are the first 2. More will be coming along. Links to the latest posts are below.
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