Hurricane Matthew Northeast Middle Atlantic Threat?
Hurricane Matthew Northeast Middle Atlantic Threat?
We want to make clear here that we are discussing model outputs and this is not my forecast which I am not ready to make yet. Also in terms of timeframe, nothing happens until Saturday night and Sunday if Hurricane Matthew in whatever form, comes up the east coast.
Yesterday one of things I picked up on was the UKMET model or the British model which occasionally does hit home runs. It was insisting that Hurricane Matthew would track further west than even the GFS and much farther west than the European which has lagged in the westward model shift.
CLICK ON MAP OF UKMET TO ANIMATE
Today’s UKMET run is the furthest west with Hurricane Matthew. It actually makes landfall at Daytona Beach and then takes it north northeastward just inland of the coast until it reaches southern Chesapeake Bay on Sunday morning. The upper air structure would suggest that from there it would probably go to 40N & 70 W. This lines up very well with today’s GFS model run which we wrote about earlier.
CLICK ON IMAGE TO ANIMATE
The European Model joined the westward shift of other weather models today as it follows a track simliar to the GFS model. Where it differs is beyond North Carolina. The difference is very simple. The upper trough on the European coming in from the west is flat. Instead of lifting it up north northeastward like the others it kicks it east northeastward out to sea.
CLICK IMAGE TO ANIMATE
The European model for the last week has been horrible with the time frame beyond day 6 and has been flipping back and forth with all sorts of solutions regarding Matthew. We are now almost back to a position that we were with Hurricane Joaquin last year where the European stood alone in taking Joaquin out to sea and wound up being correct. The European model has another opportunity here to hit a home run. If it is right, we will have no serious weather impacts from Hurricane Matthew at all.
One other consideration is that if the other models are correct with an offshore low going to 40N & 70W it is my opinion that we will see Hurricane Matthew transition to a post tropical system and behave much like a winter time noreaster. This means the heavy rain shield would shift to the west side and we would see drought breaking rains here.
Of course all of this has to happen first and we will be watching Matthew for clues to the long term. Also one other factor to consider is that there is disturbed weather to the northeast of Matthew that some models strengthen into a tropical storm. This may add yet another wrinkle to all this.
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