Hurricane Matthew Gfs & Euro Models
Hurricane Matthew Gfs & Euro Models
Hurricane Matthew appears to be doing a counterclockwise loop at the moment as the eye seems to be getting its act together again. An eye wall replacement cycle may be underway. We will wait to see if pressures are falling again as we get more reports.
000 URNT12 KWBC 011819 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016 A. 01/18:06:50Z B. 13 deg 10 min N 073 deg 21 min W C. NA D. 123 kt E. 116 deg 6 nm F. 200 deg 121 kt G. 116 deg 7 nm H. 944 mb I. 16 C / 2149 m J. 21 C / 2528 m K. 13 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C8 N. 12345 / NA O. .01 / 1 nm P. NOAA3 WB14A MATTHEW OB 10 MAX FL WIND 121 KT 116 / 7 NM 18:05:09Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 165 / 19 KTS
The full sequence of afternoon weather models are in. The takeaways from the GFS model & European Model show the European model showing a much deeper hurricane with a shift to the left through it still takes the hurricane offshore.
The closer track to the coast is due to the approaching trough out of the Plains and into the upper midwest. The European is deeper though it still keeps the two systems separate and never really phases them together.
The GFS has a much deeper trough coming out of the Plains which it amplfies as it approaches the east coast. This causes the two systems to somewhat phase together. It creates an upper air environment which tucks the hurricane along the coast and takes it north north east just offshore.
It really now seems to be coming a little easier going forward. This is all going to depend on the sharpness and depth of the trough moving across the United States and what happens when the two systems begin to interact with each other. The strength of that trough will be entirely dependent on whether a ridge builds in the west or does another Pacific system crash into the Northwest US and flattens the ridge out. In the meantime Matthew will soon begin its turn to the northwest and head for Jamaica and Haiti.
The differences in the short range are also very important as the GFS has the hurricane missing Jamaica and turning northwest into Eastern Cuba, while the European has it missing Jamaica and turning northeast into Haiti. From there the models move Hurricane Matthew northwestward. That difference of 100 miles or so could be very important as both models move Hurricane Matthew northwest from there. The European is in the Eastern Bahamas and the GFS is in the Central & Western Bahamas. Food for thought as we continue to move forward.
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