Hurricane Matthew Florida Warnings Extended Northward
Hurricane Matthew Florida Warnings Extended Northward
As Hurricane Matthew conintues to move further away from Cuba and over 86 degree water, we are seeing it become better organized and winds have increased again to 120 mph. Hurricane Matthew is a category 3 hurricane and further strengthening is likely for the next 48 hours as the hurricane approaches the east coast of Florida.
HURRICANE MATTHEW FLORIDA LATEST ADVISORY 11AM EST
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR THE BAHAMAS AFTER HITTING CUBA HARD... ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES SIMULTANEOUSLY PENETRATE MATTHEW'S EYE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 75.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF CABO LUCRECIA CUBA ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line. The Hurricane Warning for Haiti has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Turks and Caicos Islands * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 75.2 West. Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On this track, Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew is expected to remain at category 3 or stronger while it moves through the Bahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). An unconfirmed wind gust of 155 mph (250 km/h) was reported in Baracoa, Cuba, last night as the eye of Matthew passed nearby. The minimum central pressure reported by both Hurricane Hunter planes was 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will gradually diminish over portions of eastern Cuba today. These conditions will continue over the southeastern Bahamas, and will spread over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Coastal east-central Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
This is going to wind up being a dangerougs scenario that is developing for Florida and the Bahamas as not only will Hurricane Matthew pass through Florida and the Bahamas once but it may do a clockwise loop and do it a second time. Weather models seem to be in agreement on this idea. The new GFS model presents a really odd scenario where once completing the full loop, Hurricane Matthew comes back inland in Southern Florida.
HURRICANE MATTHEW FLORIDA GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE
HURRICANE MATTHEW FLORIDA GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE
In what could be an even more bizarre scenario, Hurricane Matthew actually begins to pull Tropical Storm Nicole Westward!
HURRICANE MATTHEW FLORIDA GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE
Now a couple of points about this. First off were this to happen Hurricane Matthew is likely to weaken somewhat as it moves southwestward due to the fact that it will be moving over an ocean where upwelling will have cooled it somewhat. Also the ideal of Tropical Storm Nicole being drawn westward is a plausible possibility given the state of the upper atmosphere off the Southeast coast. There is no mechanism to take Nicole to the northeast so it really is left to move under Hurricane Matthew’s influence. Needless to say this is going to be one for the meteorological history books with a few footnotes attached if this all plays out. We will of course be watching other model developments as the day passes.
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