Hurricane Matthew Florida SE US Coast Threat Increases
Hurricane Matthew Florida SE US Coast Threat Increases
GFS Shifts Left To Florida Coast
Hurricane & Tropical Storm Watches May Be Posted Soon
The overnight model cycle has begun and the gfs model continues its westward trend. The latest run brings Hurricane Matthew almost onshore along the east coast of Northern Florida.
HURRICANE MATTHEW FLORIDA CLICK ON IMAGE TO ANIMATE
The center stays barely offshore and would at the very least create tropical stom conditions up and down the Florida east coast beginning early Friday morning in the south and spreading northward durng the day. From there Hurricane Matthew continues to straddle the coastline of Georgia and then moves just inland in South Carolina near Charleston. Matthew continues north northeast inland of the coast and west of Hatteras and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It is also beginning to feel the impact of the upper trough swinging through the Great Lakes. This is a critical juncture for the Middle Atlantic and the northeast because if that trough even partially phases it would bring Matthew further up the coast.
HURRICANE MATTHEW FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA CLICK ON IMAGE TO ANIMATE
As we go from here Hurricane Matthew looks to be making the transition to a post tropical system. The track and structure would suggest that the effects for New Jersey northeastward to Southern New England would be much like a winter time nor’easter and a fairly strong one. The center does not cross any land mass until it gets to Southeastern Massachusetts. This transition and track would bring heavy and potentially drought breaking rains to much of the rain starved areas of the northeast.
When we see the structure of the upper air the GFS continues to lift the trough up to the northeast and phase it together. This is where the GFS and the European Model from earlier continue to disagree as the European has a flat trough which never phases and kicks Matthew out to sea.
The UKMET model which has been leading the charge to a further west solution goes even further west with Hurricane Matthew taking it inland just north of Miami and then taking an inland weakening hurricane/tropical storm right up the coast to Northern New England. The track would be just inland which would mean a substantial rain and wind event for our area but it does also mean that we would not see a direct hit coming from offshore. Each of these tracks would play out in different ways obviously and we will get more specific with regards to this as we get closer.
As of the timing of this post, the European is not out yet We will of course address this in the morning after the overnight model cycle is complete.
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