HURRICANE MATTHEW AIMING FOR JAMAICA & HAITI
HURRICANE MATTHEW AIMING FOR JAMAICA & HAITI
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WINDS 140 MPH
150 MPH EUROPEAN & GFS OVERNIGHT FLIPS BACK WESTWARD
Satellite loops this morning show Hurricane Matthew continues to edge along to the northwest. The eyewall appears ragged. The reconnaissance aircraft this morning found the lowest pressure about the same at 947 millibars. The winds may be coming down just a little bit which is typical for a hurricane that has achieved an extreme amount of strength. But it should be noted that the winds here achieved category 5 status but from a standpoint of pressure it reached a category 4. The old criteria required both pressure and wind standards to be met. Now it is only wind.
URNT12 KNHC 021403 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142016 A. 02/13:34:50Z B. 13 deg 58 min N 074 deg 32 min W C. 700 mb 2631 m D. 98 kt E. 235 deg 8 nm F. 318 deg 98 kt G. 235 deg 10 nm H. 947 mb I. 9 C / 3046 m J. 17 C / 3046 m K. 9 C / NA L. CLOSED M. E33/16/12 N. 1234 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF303 1314A MATTHEW OB 16 MAX FL WIND 117 KT 341 / 8 NM 12:16:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 111 KT 054 / 9 NM 13:37:30Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 070 / 4 KT MAX FL TEMP 21 C 231 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR RAGGED EYEWALL
HURRICANE MATTHEW LATEST ADVISORY
BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MEANDERING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 74.6W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is drifting toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Across western Haiti, expect total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches, while northern sections of Haiti can expect lower amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range with localized maxima near 5 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 10 inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
HURRICANE MATTHEW NEW MODEL CYCLE
The beginning of the new model cycle begins. The NAM at the end of its 84 our range shows Hurricane Matthew coming into view with the trough out west beginning its swing eastward. Will that western trough be strong enough and deep enough to pick Matthew up and move up the east coast?
We are getting to the close to the point where clues should become more obvious. The afternoon model cycle should be very interesting indeed. I have a feeling we may still see more curve balls thrown our way.
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK VIDEOS
In case you missed them I’ve been previewing the upcoming winter in a series of posts and videos. Here are the first 2. More will be coming along. Links to the latest posts are below.
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