Hurricane Matthew 130 MPH Heading North

Hurricane Matthew 130 MPH Heading North

Hurricane Matthew 130 MPH Heading North

Hurricane Matthew continues on a steady northward course this morning with top winds of 130 mph. Hurricane Warnings are up for Haiti, Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, and the Southeastern Bahamas. Warnings are likely to be extended to the Central and Northern Bahamas at some point either tonight or on Tuesday.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
800 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 74.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 74.9 West.  Matthew is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A general northward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica and
southwestern Haiti tonight, and eastern Cuba on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).  NOAA buoy 42058, located about 40 miles (70 km)
south of the center of Matthew, recently reported a sustained wind
of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
tonight, and eastern Cuba Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti later today and eastern
Cuba tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
beginning today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday with hurricane
conditions expected by late Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the Dominican Republic by late today.

RAINFALL:  Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches across southern Haiti and the southwestern
portion of the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of
40 inches.  Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches.  Across eastern Jamaica, total
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh96-132

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Longer term weather models for the east coast seem to be in good agreement that Matthew will stay offshore. The GFS is still the furthest left of all the models with the European the furthest to the right. Im beginning to think that we are going to see Hurricane Matthew stay offshore but the only question in my mind is whether it tracks close enough to give us some much needed rain as the GFS implies. The GFS worst case scenario at this point would be some wind and rain late Saturday into Sunday but it would be nothing that couldn’t be managed. The other models would give us some showers from a passing cold front and little else.

hurricane matthew

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Right now based on all the model scenarios it does not appear that we have the upper air to support Hurricane Matthew coming straight up the coast. The GFS paints the worst case scenario which is offshore with some rain and wind but nothing crazy. Other models would be even less. The issue remains the feature in the jet stream that moves east across the Great Lakes. The GFS model is the only model that seems to amplify this as it moves east while the others keep this feature flat. Given that the GFS has been continuously overplaying this idea for many days now, it is my opinion at this point that the flatter look will be closer to reality. Of course we will want confirmation from a few more model runs to feel better about this because of recent model volatility.

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