Hurricane Jose Long Range Getting Complicated

These things are never easy. There were certainly hints that the long range outlook for Hurricane Jose would get more complicated but nothing you could really hang your hat on. However overnight weather models have moved around a bit and are showing that indeed the forecast for Hurricane Jose is not a simple one by any means and there are a range of possibilities that are out there that we will explore. First off however is the current look of Jose which is continuing to undergo some northerly shear. The center of the hurricane is not exposed from the main thunderstorm activity but remains tucked in under the the northwest corner of the convection. For now at least Hurricane Jose is holding its own strength wise.

SATELLITE LOOP

The track for Jose in the short term remains pretty straight forward. It has been doing a clockwise loop and it continues to move south southeastward and the center will probably get close or south of 25 degrees north and then turn to the west as an upper high begins to build around it. This will essential trap Jose and keep it away from the weak trough remnant of Irma that will be passing through the Northeast US over the next few days.

GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST FRIDAY 8AM

One important change in the overnight model runs is that the weak upper trough from the remnants of Irma is even weaker. A weakness develops in the ridge that allows Jose to punch through it and move northward. The subtle nature of the pattern means we need to be cautious for Jose to make a closer pass to the Carolinas than originally modeled. A change in strength of either the weak trough to the north or the ridge over Jose could mean a west to east change in the track by many miles. This is even further complicated by the fact that a strong upper ridge is building into Southeastern Canada which takes away the possibility of something coming down and taking it rapidly away to the Northeast.

GFS UPPER AIR SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 17

The European model overnight has more of a trough in the northeast. It isn’t much but it is enough to perhaps make the first past less of a threat however it builds an upper high in Southeastern Canada which blocks it from moving out and then creates another strange loop back westward.

EUROPEAN UPPER AIR FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK

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Obviously this is a bizarre scenario that is being painted and I would not at this point take it too seriously. The situation is extremely complex and this puzzle won’t be resolved for quite awhile with lots of twists and turns coming so be prepared for all sorts of adventures from the weather models in the coming days.