Hurricane Jose European Model & What It Means

By now everyone seems to have heard about the afternoon European model run which certainly raises eyebrows for our area early next week. First things first this is more than 6 days away so there is much room for model variablilty. Second is not all models are on the same page which is usually the case this far out. Knowing this going in lets look at what is going on. First Hurricane Jose has barely moved this afternoon or just drifting southward. The hurricane is still suffering from shear and some cold water up welling as it crosses its own path. Conditions are not favorable for strengthening and it could weaken a bit over the next day or so.

SATELLITE LOOP

Let us also set straight that this will not be a category 3 hurricane like Irma. Water temperatures on the track projected by the European model could not support hurricane strength for long especially if it were slow moving which it appears it would be. Water temperatures need to be above 80 and most water temperatures nearby are generally in the low to mid 70s. There is a new moon next Wednesday which means that tides will be higher than average. And please let’s remember that its a long way from now until early next week and upper air patterns being a bit volatile can change. Set ups like this before have lead to out to sea solutions as well so this remains certainly on the table.

Hurricane track models that go out far enough show various solutions here that range widely but for now none of them bring this inland and west like the European model. What exactly is going on then that caused the European model to do what it did. Look carefully at the European’s upper air map below and click on it to see the motion. You can see how Jose breaks through the upper ridge and then loops it back toward the coast as we head into the middle of next week.

EUROPEAN UPPER AIR FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

Where the GFS is different is that it has a weak trough to the northwest of Jose that acts as a kicker to push it out to the northeast. This is an entirely feasible idea for an outcome.

GFS UPPER AIR NEXT MONDAY SEPTEMBER 18TH

The other BIG difference is what happens beyond Monday. The European builds a big upper high to the north of us which essentially steers Jose westward while the GFS has nothing that even remotely resembles the European’s view of the upper air pattern. It is completely different from the European with the jet stream pattern and in its world, Jose would have already been long gone out to sea.

EUROPEAN UPPER AIR THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21

GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 21ST

These are the primary model differences going forward plus there may be a few more changes that could show up in either model. With regards to performance in the long range with Irma, the European & the British UKMET model did a much better job than the GFS did though by no means was it perfect. That is a bit distressing as far as which model might have the more correct picture of next week since the European & UKMET did so well Also the GFS to me seems a bit too amplified with its idea of the jet stream in the Western US. For now we will just sit back and watch to see if some model consistency develops overnight and during the next 2 days. We have plenty of time to watch this.,