Hurricane Joaquin Continues To Strengthen Winds: 85 mph

Satellite loops show Hurricane Joaquin continuing to intensify as the pressure falls continue at the rate of about 1mb per hour now down to 968 mb and top winds are now 85 mph. The track continues southwestward at about 6 mph bringing Joaquin closer to the central Bahamas where Hurricane Warnings are in strengthening trend. The visible satellite shows what appears to be an eye forming. The latest European run has begun and we will report on what it shows and try to zero in on what may happen later this afternoon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

 

…HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.4N 72.9W
ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-animated.gif

KEY MESSAGES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST DISCUSSION

1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the
period remains low, since the environmental steering currents are
complex and the model guidance is inconsistent.  A wide range of
outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane
along the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from
the coast.  It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific
wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.

2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast
occurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could
be required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday
evening.

3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system.  This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast.

We will have more on this as the day progress and also please read my post regarding the global models and their handling of Joaquin.

nhcprog

 

The Hurricane Center forecast track is to the right of the global GFS and Canadian Models and to the left of the European of last night. Needless to say if this is right and the track is to just east of Delaware Bay this would be a serious hurricane hit. We are still a long way away from the final outcome.

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