HURRICANE HILDA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS..WILL BE DOWNGRADED TONIGHT

LOCATION...17.1N 151.8W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Hurricane Hilda continues to undergo shearing from strong winds aloft that will weaken it to a tropical storm. The faster weakening is causing a faster westward turn and this has shifted the forecast further south. The National Hurricane center has the storm passing south of the big island on Thursday which makes sense. The faster weakening is causing the low level circulation to respond to the lower level easterly flow. That center will eventually separate from the main thunderstorm activity. 

nhcprogBy the time the storm is parallel to the islands it will be as a weak tropical storm or possibly even as a depreesion before it eventually just weakens to a remnant low. It is amazing that islands have tropical systems passing all around them but most of the time they seem immune to bigger hits. 
nhcprog2The system is less than 300 miles away from the big island but the satellite picture above with the forecast track drawn in shows much of the thunderstorm activity is east of the center of circulation. Take a look at the loop and you can see the high clouds getting taken away to the northeast which is a sign of strong shearing and a hostile atmosphere for hurricanes.

As far as the Atlantic is concerned it remains very very quiet and there are no signs of it coming to life anytime soon which means no tropical storm development is likely for the next several days.
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