SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…13.4N 46.6W
ABOUT 970 MI…1560 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES
Satellite loops this evening shows Danny holding its own quite well. Even though the satellite loop showed somestrengthening with a visible eye and a well defined circulation, the eye has become obscured per the National Hurricane Center discussion. The hurricane is taking advantage of the warm waters there and a low shear environment as long as it lasts.
There are issues going forward as the Hurricane Center discussion indicates
As has been mentioned in earlier discussions, Danny is susceptible
to sudden and possibly unexpected changes in intensity due to its
small size. Since vertical shear is expected to remain low for
another 24 hours or so, Danny could certainly strengthen some more
if it can avoid intrusions of dry air into the inner core. After
36 hours, an increase in westerly to southwesterly shear and a
decrease in mid-level relative humidities are expected to lead to
weakening, and Danny is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm
before it reaches the Leeward Islands. The updated NHC intensity
forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to
the IVCN consensus. It should be noted that given Danny’s small
size, the weakening rate after 36 hours could be faster than
indicated in the official forecast.
We shall see what happens as the storm gets closer to that area of shear though it still remains in a favorable environment for another 24 hours or so.
With regards to the upper low off the east coast it continues to look cold core in nature for the time being. There appears to be a concentration of thunderstorms trying to form around or just west of Bermuda. We will watch to see how this progress during the day tomorrow
