HURRICANE DANNY WEAKENS, TROPICAL STORM WATCHES UP FOR THE LEEWARDS

…DANNY STILL SLOWLY WEAKENING…
…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…15.4N 52.0W
ABOUT 660 MI…1060 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and
Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

It is time for Tropical Storm watches to be going up and they have for the Northern Leeward Islands. Hurricane Danny has continued to weaken and you can see on the loop above that the storm has lost its intense circular look from yesterday. Shear is beginning to take its toll on the hurricane and top winds are 90 mph. The forecast is for Danny to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it gets to the Leewards and it could weaken even faster than forecast if the wind shear continues to rip it apart.

The forecast track takes Danny over Puerto Rico and north of the Dominican Republic to the southern Bahamas. The weaker the system, the more it will be pushed along by low level eastelies and the main track takes it to the southern Bahamas as a depression.

Now let’s suppose that the forecast is right. The upper air pattern forecast by the GFS by early Thursday shows a deep trough in the east that is forecast to linger there for a day or 2. If that is the case the likely track would be around the high and then northeastward and away from the coast. At least that is the way it looks right now. Still a long way to go and a lot can happen before we get there.