HRRR Model Rainfall Overnight

HRRR Model Rainfall Overnight

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We are going to be spending a little more time going forward using the HRRR model. This model is an ultra short range model that only goes out 23 hours into the future. The problem with so many models is that there is a solution for everyone’s tastes. With regards to tonight’s weather it appears that not much in the way of rain arrives until the early morning hours in western areas and then spreads to the coast along about daybreak

HRRR Model Rainfall Overnight

hrrrradar HRRR Model Rainfall Overnight

This is what the radar is forecast to look like at 7am Tuesday. Rain extends east to cover most of Long Island and Connecticut while the back edge is approaching Eastern Pennsylvania and Western New Jersey. With regards to rainfall amounts through 7am amounts are higher obviously to the west of the coast. Coastal areas will play catch up later in the day.

HRRR Model Rainfall Overnight Forecast Rain through 7AM Tuesday

hrrrprecip HRRR Model Rainfall Overnight

 

In places where the rain has already taken place amounts are in the quarter to half inch range with some locally higher amounts. Trace amounts to a tenth of an inch are indicated along the coast through 7am Tuesday. With regards to total rainfall. It appears that the rain will hold together for the most part. Area wide amounts will be in the half inch range for the most part.

HRRR Model Rainfall Overnight Total Rainfall Forecast

Showers Approach Milder Temperatures

Once the front passes through around midday weather conditions should be improving Tuesday afternoon as colder air begins to move in. Temperatures will be in the 50s and should settle back into the 40s later in the day.

The longer term has taken a bit of a turn. The blocking developing in the North Atlantic is so strong, that it is now likely that dry air will dominate the weather for the rest of the week; rather than a stronger onshore flow with clouds and rain. If this is the case, it looks like it will be no worse than a mix of sun and clouds for the remainder of the week. Temperatures each day will be on the cool side with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Cooler temperatures are likely along the coast during the day because of the northeast flow.

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