Hot Humid Conditions Thunderstorm Risks Late Today & Thursday
We have hot weather for today and Thursday as winds haved turned more south and southwest which is cutting off the cooler ocean to some extent. Humidity levels will remain high for another couple of days. We are also bringing back the risk for thunderstorms today though the best chances for any storms look to be inland. We have a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most locations with limited cooling along coastal locations.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
We do have some flood watches up, mainly for counties in Northern & Northwest New Jersey but in general, the Weather Prediction Center is indicating a 15 to 40 percent chance for excessive rainfall and flash flooding for areas from New Jersey westward across all of Pennsylvania and southward into Maryland and Virginia.
Regardless of the exact behavior of these thunderstorms, multiple rounds are likely in many areas, and each one will rainfall rates of around 2+”/hr (20-40% chance), leading to total rainfall of 2-4″ with locally higher amounts possible (10-20% chance of 5″ according to forecasters at the Weather Prediction Center and I believe this is very much in line with what has been happening lately. Slow moving thunderstorms are going to be an issue later today. We will also need to watch the eastern flank which for now does not extend into New York City or the Hudson Valley in New York State though that could change once we see what develops on radars later today.
We will be monitoring radars carefully later today into tonight. Thursday we see another upper trough and weather front approaching and this opens the door for the possibility of thunderstorms again as well as severe weather. It will also be a hot and humid day across Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England with high temperatures reaching into the 90s. Thunderstorms will develop later in the day into the evening Thursday.
At ;east have of the area will see some humidity relief arriving Friday as winds turn northwest and north. Dew points will drop to the lower 60s across Northeastern Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, New York City, Long Island and the Hudson Valley. To the south in Southern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey southward, dew points will drop into the upper 60s which at least is a little better than low and middle 70s. Friday will be sunny with highs mostly in the 80s.
As far as the weekend is concerned, Thursday’s cold front stalls to the south and comes back up as a warm front. Low pressure develops on it and tracks to the west and northwest Saturday night and Sunday. This leaves us with a decent Saturday. We will call it sunshine giving way to arriving clouds with highs in the 80s except cooler near the ocean. We will likely see some showers and thunderstorms as a warm front goes by late Saturday night into Sunday morning and perhaps another chance for storms later Sunday as a cold front passes. Sunday highs will be in the 80s.
BE SURE TO DOWNLOAD THE FREE METEOROLOGIST JOE CIOFFI WEATHER APP &
ANGRY BEN’S FREE WEATHER APP “THE ANGRY WEATHERMAN!
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.