heatwave

Heatwave But Not Too Extreme

Heatwave But Not Too Extreme

 

Heatwave But Not Too Extreme

This is the reason why I do not like the 3 day definition of a heatwave. It is too short. 3 days in a row of 90 plus happens way to often to have any real value. It should go back to 5 days in a row like it used to be. The second thing is the pattern for the last six weeks has been for disturbances in the northern jet stream amplify and suppress the heat ridge. This keeps the hottest air to the south and west. When it gets in here, it only does so for a couple of days. Such is the case again for this weekend. For New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania they will get into the hot air for a time and it appears now that Friday and Saturday will be the two hottest days. Saturday might be the one day where somebody hits 100. Even so the dew points will be dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s which will make it a bit easier to take.

Heatwave But Not Too Extreme

Saturday Dew Points

dewpoints heatwave

The satellite loop this morning shows nothing but clear skies across the northeast and it should be another great day of sunshine with highs in the mid 80s to some lower 90s across inland areas of New Jersey and the Hudson Valley. Tonight we will see the humidity start to climb a bit but skies should be clear through most if not all of the night. It will still be reasonably comfortable.

Heatwave But Not Too Extreme

Satellite & Radar Loops

storm free

storm free

Obviously the radars today will be quiet and inactive and we won’t see any thunderstorm activity show up until Friday.

storm free
storm free

storm free

Heatwave Friday Weekend Outlook

Friday will be hot with highs reaching 90 to 95 for most areas as a weather front approaches. There may be some scattered thunderstorms with that but models are underwhelming and the Storm Prediction center has reduced the risk of severe weather for the area to marginal. The NAM model runs not been impressed at all with the thunderstorm development showing a dying line of storms tomorrow evening. Now it is always possible for a cell or two to blow up for a short period of time so I would cover for that possibility. But this does not look like a widespread severe event.

Heatwave But Not Too Extreme

Nam Model Forecast Friday Evening 11pm

heatwave

Now with regards to the weekend Saturday and Sunday will be hot. Saturday comes with a northwest wind so all areas including the beaches should burn up. Sunday the winds turn a little more northerly which will cut the temperatures down by a few degrees but it will still be hot.

Heatwave But Not Too Extreme

Saturday Forecast Highs

heatwave

Heatwave But Not Too Extreme

Sunday Forecast Highs

sunday heatwave

No thunderstorms are forecast for the weekend with the atmosphere drying out and stabilizing. In summary this is going to be a hot summer weekend. Saturday will be the hottest day. We still will see 90s into early next week. Severe weather if any Friday should be scattered in nature, and the Weather Service should go back to the 5 day definition of a heatwave.

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