Heatwave Day 5 Severe Weather Threat
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Monday will be Day 5 of our heatwave with temperatures rising to 90 to 95 in most areas though it will be in the 80s to near 90 along coastal areas of Long Island. Humidity will be coming back on Monday and there will be the risk for scattered thunderstorms in the morning as the humidity comes in and in the evening when the cold front arrives.
HEATWAVE DAY 5 MONDAY FORECAST HIGHS
HEATWAVE DAY 5 MONDAY FORECAST DEW POINTS
The dew points really shoot up on Monday which means the air will be saturated with tropical air and it will feel like Florida. The high dew points and instability in the atmosphere has prompted the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service to put Northwest New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, and the Hudson Valley in a slight risk for severe weather. The risk area also extends into Northwest Connecticut. Marginal risk for severe weather exists everwhere else in New Jersey Pennsylvania to NYC, Long Island and the rest of Southern New England.
HEATWAVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY STORM PREDICTION CENTER
The new NAM model just issued has backed off from much thunderstorm action in the morning which is not a surprise. Anything that is around in the morning looks to be scattered in nature and other than a few passing scattered downpours, does not appear to problematic other than it will add to the humidity in the air.
HEATWAVE NAM MODEL FORECAST 8AM MONDAY
So the next question will be what will it look like in the evening when the front approaches. Friday’s cold front saw the models produce bullish action only to see much of the thunderstorm activity fall apart. Everything would suggest some thunderstorms moving through but the drought continues to intensify. It would appear that widespread rains are a bet against at this point. It would appear that the threat may come after the evening commute is done given the timing of the front itself which will be coming through during the night instead of the late afternoon or evening.
HEATWAVE NAM MODEL FORECAST 8PM MONDAY
Tuesday shapes up to be a repeat of Saturday which means sunshine and hot conditions but it will be less humid with highs in the low to mid 90s. With a little luck Wednesday will see sunshine with temperatures near or just under 90 degrees.
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