Heating And Cooling: European Polar Vortex Attack
The attack on the polar vortex continues however the European model offers us an interesting view of the heating and cooling process that is underway across the atmosphere. The model was colder than the GFS and it could offer a surprise Monday night and Tuesday as very cold air builds in and a strong disturbance rotates around the upper low to the northeast.
The thing to watch out for is the diving system that is coming around the vortex in Labrador. The European has been consistently stronger with this system for days and the GFS is finally coming around to this idea. In the flow there is a strong diving disturbance that will cause a storm to develop offshore which is probably going to be far enough out not to cause issues. Anytime I see something like this I want to be especially cautious as it will not take much to have this be even deeper and further left creating a surprise for someone along the coast. Longshot chance at this point but it is something to keep a little eye on.
Either way the European offers very cold temperatures for Monday into Wednesday of next week. Tuesday temperatures do not get out of the 20s and we will see nights in the teens everywhere. At the very least the pattern shift has allowed the atmosphere to try to gain a sense of normalcy. We will watch with interest to see how the changes from the last night translate to today’s model runs.
Last night’s GFS model run was a bit confusing in the long range with so much going on. You can see the video analysis of that model.
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