Harvey Moving Northwest Development Expected Soon

Harvey Moving Northwest Development Expected Soon

 

Harvey Moving Northwest Development Expected Soon

Satellite loops show the remnant wave of Harvey is now beginning to move into the Gulf of Mexico. A weak low level circulation is evident right along the the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the center is in the Gulf of Mexico and the circulation moves far enough from land, organization and strengthening should get underway and tropical depression or tropical storm could occur Wednesday.

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Weather model guidance all suggest a northwest track toward the Texas coast with models varying in strength with regards to wind. The European shows a tropical storm moving inland near or just north of Corpus Christi and then moving inland and stalling out with the track reversing back into the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is similar with the stalling and reversing idea though it does it a bit further north.

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While models may differ on the specifics they all pretty much are locked on the idea that Harvey in whatever form it is in will be a very slow mover. This is going to make rain a big deal for South & Southeast Texas and some very heavy rains over a periods of several days or more are possible creating some serious flooding potential here. The GFS model adds the fact that Harvey could strengthen to a category 1 or 2 hurricane before landfall. The National Hurricane Center in its most recent updated is already alerting residents along the Texas coast of this possibility. Steering currents in the upper atmosphere are forecast to collapse which would lend to the ideal of either slowing to a crawl or temporarily stalling out.harvey

The GFS model is showing rainfall potential of over a foot of rain across the Western Gulf Coast from SW Louisiana through most of Southeast and South Texas. This is certainly not an unreasonable forecast given the upper air dynamics.

 

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The rest of the tropics for now are quiet though the tropical wave in the Bahamas will persist for the next several days. Conditions could become conducive for development late this week or this weekend as most weather models are bullish on something forming just east of the Florida coast. The cold front moving through our area now will stall just off the Southeast coast of the US which makes this all the more complex.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

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