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GFS Weather Model Goes Wintry

GFS Weather Model Goes Wintry

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GFS Weather Model Goes Wintry

Before everyone jumps on the winter is coming soon train, let us right off the bat caution that this is one run of the GFS that shows a cold bullish winter pattern developing over the next 2 weeks once the rain systems of this week are done. WE NEED TO SEE A BUNCH MORE OF THESE GOING FORWARD. We also need to see some sort of CONFIRMATION FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AMONG OTHERS.

gfs weather model

First off is the rain for Tuesday-Thursday of this coming week. Everything seems on board for a 2 to 3 inch rainfall over a widespread area. Looking at the models today there seems to be no changes in that regard. Once the two weather systems are done we watch and see what happens going forward.

gem240 gfs weather model

First off there are major differences in the GFS weather model and Canadian weather model at day 10. Given that the Canadian weather tends to be a bit squirrelly most of the time we will put some weight in the differences but not much. The Canadian model and the GFS model agree (somewhat) on troughing in the west. They also agree (somewhat) on the ridge building over Alaska. However they disagree on everything else especially in the east.

gfs240 gfs weather model

The biggest difference is in the east where the GFS weather model has more energy in Southeastern Canada which keeps it colder in the Eastern US than the Canadian which builds a strong ridge aloft in the east thanks to a deep trough offshore. If we want to use last night’s European model as the tie breaker it leans much more to the GFS weather model than the Canadian. However the European last night had a system in the Ohio Valley at this point and a different ridge structure over Alaska. If it is wrong on the Ohio Valley system then it is likely to look more like the Canadian.

gfs weather model

From day 10 on the GFS goes full force winter as a strong polar vortex forms in Canada and drives cold air everywhere. You can see it on the Temperature Anomaly Map below. Just click to animate.

GFS WEATHER MODEL UPPER AIR DAYS 11-14 CLICK TO ANIMATE

gfs weather model

gfs weather model

Where do we go from here. Well obviously we watch and wait. Ensemble members of the GFS suggest the ridge idea in the east is more correct though much flatter than the Canadian model. Since the Canadian and European models only go out 10 days verses 16 for the GFS, it is possible that they could get to a similar place down the road but take a little longer to get there. The new European model run from this afternoon is running right now and we will see where it takes us. Prior runs seem to have been in agreement somewhat with what it looks like days 7-10.  Let us see where today’s run takes us.

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