gfs model useless

GFS Model Useless

GFS Model Useless

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If there was ever an example of how useless the GFS model can be in the long range this is a great one. Take a look at the last 4 runs of the model for 1am Thursday 2/25/2016. Is it any wonder that it becomes almost impossible to make a reliable forecast beyond the 3 day range using this model.

GFS Model Useless LAST 4 MODEL RUNS

gfs model useless GFS138 GFS Model Useless gfs144 GFS Model Useless gfs150

 

At least the bottom 2 runs from overnight were reasonble close. After that it just goes off the wall. All of this is because of the fact that with lots of energy running around, each run keys and reacts to something else which changes the entire meteorological profile. The European while not perfect clearly outperforms. At least the European has keep things reasonably closer in terms of how it develops things even though the same issue of multiple short waves in the jet stream.

GFS Model Useless EUROPEAN LAST 3 RUNS

GFS Model UselessGFS Model Useless

GFS Model Useless

I did this post just in case you think figuring all these things out is an easy proposition. On to the next run!

 

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