GFS Model Shows Noreaster Next Wednesday But?

GFS Model Shows Noreaster Next Wednesday

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Weather models continue to evolve for the first part of next week and both the GFS model & the Nam model seem to be pointing to next Wednesday showing a low moving up the east coast. The GFS model on today’s run time out streams of energy to produce a deepening low moving up the east coast for the middle of next week. The gfs model has trended in this direction for the last several runs however there are issues regarding the timing of energy that need to be considered. And they are the same issues that we dealt with all winter long. That is there is a lot of energy running around and each model run times things out differently than the prior run which results in a different solution each time.

GFS Model Shows Noreaster Next Wednesday

UPPER AIR LAST NIGHT VERSES TODAY’S GFS MODEL RUN

gfs132 GFS Model Shows Noreaster gfs126 GFS Model Shows Noreaster


Here is the upper air profile from the last 2 gfs model runs. The top is from overnight and the bottom is today’s gfs model run. Notice the difference in how it handles the upper flow in the east. Prior runs showed multiple short waves running around with no sense of organization while the latest run concentrates on 2 distinct areas of energy. Today’s model lifts that southern stream energy right up the coast.

GFS Model Shows Noreaster Next Wednesday

GFS SURFACE MAP NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

gfs126 GFS Model Shows Noreaster

 

The map above is the surface map for Wednesday afternoon with low pressure along the Virginia coast which tracks up the coast to Cape Cod and intensifies. This look was not that different from last night’s Euro model run. From the standpoint of much needed rain this actually would be a blessing if it works out since it would be a good soaking rain from North Carolina to New England. But again we need to see some model consistency going forward before we latch on to this idea.

We will have a separate Euro model post later this afternoon along with a new weather video discussing all this.

 


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