gfs model

Gfs Model & Euro Outlook For Rain & Tropics

Gfs Model & Euro Weather Outlook For Rain & Tropics

Gfs Model & Euro Weather Outlook For Rain & Tropics

 

The easy part of this forecast is from now until Wednesday. The current cool air mass moves out and then as an upper ridge builds into the Eastern US it will mean for very warm temperatures Monday through Wednesday with highs Monday in the mid 70s to near 80 and in the low to mid 80s in some places Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create the possibility of record highs in some areas. This ridge is well to the north of its normal position. As a result it is creating below normal surface pressures in the Bahamas and Eastern Gulf of Mexico southward into the Caribbean. This opens the door for the possibility for something to spin up in that region next week but the question is where. The other question is whether it gets involved in wholesale pattern changes that will begin to occur later next week. The outcome of all this could be a drought denting rain for this area which continues to sink deeper and deeper into severe drought conditions. Otherwise it could be another lost opportunity.

gfs model

gfs model

As we look ahead into later next week on the question of where, Models focus on two areas. The first is in the Southern Caribbean. Last week for a number of runs we saw numerous attempts at developing a hurricane in that region however models have backed away from this. Attention seems to be shifting to the Bahamas where a low is forecast to spin up and gradually move northwest or northward. All of this is happening as a trough swings out of the western states and heads for the Ohio Valley.

gfs model

The gfs model solution looks to bring up a low up the coast. Now this could be anything from non tropical to tropical or something in between. The ideal would be something tropical in nature that creates more of a rain event than anything else as it moves right up the coast. But whether this happens or not hinges on struture of the system coming out of the west and what happens to it when it reaches the East.

gfs model

The GFS model upper air is very dynamic as it develops a strong upper air low and attempts to lift it northeastward. The northern part of the jet stream is weak enough to allow this to happen. This would bring rain from both the coastal low (what ever that winds up being) to a second non tropical low that develops a day or so later. The European model on the other hand has the northern jet overwhelming the northeast and would keep everything suppressed south and east.

gfs model

The European solution is actually quite similar to what the GFS model did overnight in the mid cycle run. The Canadian run has the strongest tropical solution here with a rather robust tropical storm moving northward just inland of the coast. That is because the Canadian phases the two jet streams.

gfs model

Obviously no answer can be given here today on what is going to happen. Given the drought pattern you have to wonder whether the flat European model idea is far more likely to occur than the other two models. However the European model has had issues for months now which makes it almost as useless as the other two in the long range. We will see how this all plays out but I do think something is going to come out of the subtropics later next week. Whether it brings us much needed rain is another matter entirely.

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