gaston

Gaston Weakens Invest 99 L Weakens

Gaston Weakens Invest 99 L Weakens

Gaston Weakens Invest 99 L Weakens

Strong southwesterly shear is impacting Gaston as it has gone from being a hurricane to a tropical storm. Gaston has moved close to an upper low to the northwest of the storm which is producing southwest winds aloft and shearing off the cloud tops.

gaston

This will probably continue through Friday but over the weekend the shear will be gone and intensification will begin again. Gaston is likely to become a hurricane again. Either way, this storm will not impact land in the United States is will eventually recurve out to the north and northeast.

gaston

Meanwhile INVEST 99L has its own issues. The visible satellite picture late this afternoon shows the exposed weak low level circulation that remains separate from the main areas of thunderstorms. It doesn’t appear that this system will develop until it gets further west into the Western Bahamas or near Southern Florida. Models are all over the place with this. A weak circulation like this would argue for a more westward course into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.

gaston

Many of the hurricane model plots late this afternoon seem to be reflecting this idea by taking the low level center into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Now should this be the case it could argue for a stronger storm down the road. Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are near 90. Shear conditions are low. Global models llike the European and the GFS want to turn it northward off the west coast of Florida keeping the system weaker.

gaston

The GFS ENSEMBLES above keep the system relatively weak as it turns northward on the west coast of Florida. Ultimately track is key and that is dependent on the strength of the east west ridge across the Southern U.S. The GFS keeps this rather strong into early next week.

gaston

Of course all of this is meaningless if nothing winds up developing which is entirely possible. One thing we can say is that regardless of development, nothing happens here in the northeast as our weather remains tame and in late summer mode. Even if something were to develop, the upper air pattern is not the kind you would see with a storm moving up the east coast. That possibility seems to be off the table.

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