Gaston Invest 91L Invest 99L
TROPICAL WEATHER VIDEO MODEL ANALYSIS SATURDAY
Gaston Invest 91L Invest 99L
Gaston Better Organized
New Disturbance 91 L off North Carolina
99L Still Disorganized
We will start off with disturbed weather off the Carolinas and just southwest of Bermuda. Low pressure has developed here and we are seeing some thunderstorms developing this morning. The circulation center is on the edge of the thunderstorms. Some models over the last few days have been spinning this up and some have not. It seems like something is definitely trying here as it drifts slowly to the west. Because of all the dry air around it, development is likely to be slow but I would caution that sometimes we can see tropical storms flare up in a hurry so we will watch cautiously.
Invest 91L Spaghetti Plots
The vast majority of models here move this system toward the Carolinas over the next 3 or 4 days. After that a sharp turn to the right is likely because of a strong cold front and deep trough that is forecast to develop in the Eastern US.
Meanwhile INVEST 99L continues to be weak and disorganized with the weak surface low remaining on the western edge of the thunderstorms. This continues to track to the west. It seems that nothing is going to happen here until the low reaches the Southeast Gulf. Global models like the European and GFS model do absolutely nothing with this which may or many not mean anything when it comes to tropical systems.
Last night’s models have clustered tracks into the Northcentral Gulf of Mexico. The issue of development remains in question here. We will continue to punt here until we see some signs of organization developing.
Tropical Storm Gaston meanwhile continues to move away from the influence of a strong upper low to the southwest of the storm. Latest satellite loops here show the tropical storm is better organized and is likely to become a hurricane later today or tonight. This system remains no threat to land.
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