Freezing Rain Risk Growing Inland Friday Afternoon And Night
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Freezing Rain Risk Growing Inland Friday Afternoon And Night
No doubt that today was a cold day with temperatures in the 30s and a busy wind that made it feel colder. There were also a few snow showers around this afternoon but those have diminished now and we should see clear skies tonight. Temperatures overnight are headed down to the upper teens inland and low to mid 20s coastal and warmer urban settings. Wednesday look for sunshine, less wind and highs that will reach the mid to upper 30s.
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We are on pace for another cold front to arrive Thursday morning. Temperatures tomorrow night will likely hold or even rise a bit ahead of the front. When the front passes there will likely be some rain showers with it but those showers should be in and out relatively quickly and weather conditions will start to improve Thursday afternoon as the next high builds into the Northeast for Thursday night and Friday morning.
One very important key to the forecast for Friday will be how low will temperatures go Thursday night. With a stronger high building in we are likely to see temperatures bottom in the mid 20s to lower 30s Friday morning with low and mid 20s inland.
This sets the stage for some freezing rain when precipitation arrives Friday morning into the afternoon. How fast do temperatures rise is going to be the big question. Along the immediate coast it seems temperatures should eclipse 32 quickly since the wind will be from a less than favorable direction to keep the cold in but inland it will be a different story,
Northwest New Jersey, as well as Orange and Dutchess Counties in the Hudson Valley look to be on the edge of the 30-40% line which I would regard as the westernmost edges of the freezing rain. The map above is the chance for at least a tenth of an inch of ice accretion so we could see lower ice accretion in areas of low probability. Those extend a little further east and south in Northern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania. I generally expect the areas in Pennsylvania north of Route 76 to be the most vulnerable. In New Jersey we will use Route 78 north and west of Route 287 as the boundary. For the Hudson Valley and Connecticut i-84 seems the most logical boundary at this point though we could see some patchy icing in areas south to Route 287.
The low tracks well to the west to the lower Great Lakes and the old front from Thursday morning stalls in Virginia and then moves northward. However it is likely to get pinched off near or just south of NYC. This could mean a prolonged period of freezing rain Friday afternoon and night for areas in upstate NY north of Poughkeepsie and Kingston up to the I-90 corridor. For most to the south of this zone it will be rain into early Saturday morning until the cold front clears the coast. Temperatures Friday will be stuck in the 30s and then climb into the 40s coast and south.
There are questions for the weekend. Weather models continue to have a difficult time with the idea of a second low coming out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and then ride up along the Southeast coast later Saturday night. From there comes uncertainty. Friday’s storm system is not well developed so clearing here will be slow if at all Saturday afternoon. The cold front stalls to the south along the Southeast Coast and over Florida as that second wave develops. There also hardly any cold air around so it seems that whatever we get Sunday it will be mostly rain. For now we will go for cloudy with the chance for rain on Sunday and revisit this tomorrow when things become clearer regarding this second system.
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