FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES NJ & PA
ANOTHER GLOOMY DAY WAITING FOR WARM FRONT
WARMER MORE HUMID REST OF THE WEEK
FLORENCE STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY HEADS TO CAROLINAS
We have a warm front to our south that is inching its way northward today. While we sit in the northeast to east wind temperatures which were in the 50s overnight and it certainly feels like October out there. Flood Watches continue for most of New Jersey and Pennsylvania today where the rain has been much heavier than places to the east. Rainfall amounts have been about a 1/2 inch to an inch since Thursday with heavier amounts in Northwest New Jersey west into Pennsylvania
We still have lots of clouds across the Northeast with the onshore flow continuing. The warm front remains pinned this morning across the Middle Atlantic States. Fronts like this tend to have to fight their way northward especially with a strong high sitting over the Canadian Maritme Provinces.
The arc of rain remains heaviest to the west of the coast. The steady rain from overnight has already become more showery in nature. We will likel see more showers popping up today with the steadier rain remaining west and north of the coast. When it isn’t raining look for some light rain or drizzle.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Low pressure is heading northeast into Michigan. While the warm front goes by overnight the cold front to the west will just fall apart as it moves eastward. Tuesday will be a warmer more humid day with some scattered showers or a thunderstorm as highs reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Then it is warm and humid for the rest of the week with clouds and sun Wednesday and Thursday along with the risk for a passing shower or thunderstorm.
. A strong upper high builds which is going to be driving Hurricane Florence toward the Carolina coast. The target zone continues to narrow and we think that Southwest North Carolina remains the most likely area of landfall late Thursday afternoon or early Thursday night. Florence has been strengthening rapidly with winds 105 mph and it will likely become a major hurricane later today. It is also likely that Florence will reach category 3 status and there is a good chance it will reach category 4 as it heads west and then west northwest. Florence missed the chance to recurve over the weekend which was no surprise. There appear to be no obstacles in track or strength between it and the Carolinas.
Monday track guidance is all about the same. The cluster grows tighter and tighter. Landfall is not the issue but what happens afterward. Upper steering is forecast to collapse which could be setting up for days of excessive rain for parts of the Middle Atlantic states.
Much of the rain on the map from the Weather Prediction Center in the northeast is front end loaded and not from Florence. Rainfall amounts across Virginia & North Carolina are Florence driven and I would look at this as a minimum amount with local amounts much higher. This of course will hinge on track and whether the center of Florence winds up stalling out for a couple of days. Some but not all models show this. We will have more on Florence a little later this morning.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.