Flood Watch Continues, Wet Snow Thursday Night Coast?
Flood Watch continues for Central New Jersey along and south of route 78 and along and north of route 195. The watch is also for Eastern Pennsylvania south of rte 78. This is the area that got 2 to 3 feet of snow and the snow melt has soaked the ground. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will cause flooding in the watch area. There are no changes regarding this watch and no additional counties have been added at the moment
Flood Watch Continues, Satellite & Radar Loops
Radar loops are showing rain developing but still outside our radar range. No rain is forecast tonight as the satellite shows clouds still well to the west. It may remain clear through a good portion of the night before clouds move in. While it is clear temperatures will be in the 30s along with some patchy fog and then begin rising once clouds arrive in the early morning hours.
Rain moves into Eastern Pennsylvania in the morning hours, Western New Jersey around mid morning, noon at New York City and points north and about 1 to 2pm across Long Island and much of Connecticut. Some of the downpours will be heavy and there is the chance for a thunderstorm. We are still forecasting 1 to 2 inches of rain and this could be more than enough to produce flooding in the flood watch area due to the heavy snow melt of the last 10 days.
Rains will be tapering off from west to east Wednesday night. There is a minor complication for Thursday and Thursday night as the front stalls offshore. A weak wave is forecast to develop on the front, and models are giving Coastal New Jersey and Central and Eastern Long Island and Easternmost Connecticut a little bit of wet snow Thursday night. Of course this will depend on temperatures an intensity. I don’t think it will amount to much in those areas.
Flood Watch Continues, Latest GFS Run Trends Toward European & Canadian Model
Friday through Sunday look dry and I’m going with the European Canadian idea that the first storm that develops off the coast Friday night and Saturday winds up staying offshore. How that storm behaves will determine the outcome of the second system for early next week. If it does not get out of the way it could force the next system to be much weaker. We will be watching model trends for this tonight on the overnight runs. The late afternoon GFS seems to have trended toward the European/Canadian idea though it is not quite there yet. We have a lot of time and a lot of model watching ahead of us.
Overnight video of the GFS and Canadian models.
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