Flood Risk New Jersey Pennsylvania Continues
Flood Risk New Jersey continues overnight with rains forecast to continue through at least part of the night. Rainfall so far has been between 1 and 2 inches around the state and some localized flooding has been reported. When we look at the satellite loop you can see the stream of tropical moisture shooting out of the Gulf of Mexico. There hasn’t been a whole lot of eastward progress of the front as it continues to slow down. Once offshore the front will stall out.
Flood Risk New Jersey Pennsylvania Continues Satellite Loops and Radars
We are going to keep an eye on the radars especially during Thursday and Thursday night. With low pressure forecast to develop on the front and cold air beginning to return tomorrow night, we see the possibility of the rain changing to snow after midnight. Now the western and northern extent of the rain will not be very far inland so this appears to be a threat more for the coast than inland. Snowfall late Thursday night should be on the order of a coating to a couple of inches with the highest amounts over Central and Eastern Connecticut, Coastal New Jersey, and Long Island. Areas west and north will see a coating to at most an inch. We show you the mid afternoon RGEM model which is usually very good in the short range and is the most aggressive of the short term models.
Flood Risk New Jersey Pennsylvania Continues RGEM Model Surface & Snowfall Forecast
We cut it back a little from this look thinking that areas west of the coast will see a coating to an inch, while there could be up to a few inches along the immediate coastal areas. Once this system moves out the next issue is trying to resolve the very complex weather scenario that is shaping up for next week. Here is the latest on the afternoon European model run.
OVERNIGHT GFS MODEL ANALYSIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
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