Flash Flood Watch Tuesday As Noreaster Develops Along The Coast
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Flash Flood Watch Tuesday As Noreaster Develops Along The Coast
We are looking at a nor’easter developing along the coast Tuesday and this has prompted Flash Flood Watches to be posted for Northern and Central New Jersey, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley, Coastal Connecticut and Long Island. Before we get to Tuesday we have tonight and Monday to get through. A warm front is setting up to our south and clouds continue to increase as we head into this evening. There were one or two isolated showers that passed through parts of the area today. The regional radar is now showing rain moving across Pennsylvania. Most of that rain will pass in areas from Northern New Jersey and NYC overnight. There won’t be much rain with this as the warm front moves to the north. Temperatures will hold steady in the 50s to near 60 overnight.
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WEATHER RADAR
Monday we will be in the warm sector as we wait for low pressure to move into Ohio from the west and weaken. A secondary low forming off the Florida coast will move northeastward and arrive off the New Jersey coast during the day Tuesday and it will strengthen when it gets there. During Monday we will see warm and somehwhat humid conditions with temperatures reaching into the 70s in many areas.
Daytime heating and some instability along with rising humidity opens up the possibility of some scattered thunderstorms developing late in the day or in the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather over Pennsylvania and New Jersey to about NYC on the idea that there could be some isolated strong cells that develop.
During Monday night we will see some scattered heavy thunderstorms as the primary low to the west weakens and the secondary takes over. Then we will see rain develop offshore and then arc back westward later Monday and and during the day Tuesday. This will produce rain heavy at times in the Flash Flood Watch zone. We are using the HRRR model as a guide for what to expect. The loop runs from 5pm Monday until 12pm Tuesday in 1 hour frames.
Rain fall amounts will be in the 1 to 3 inch range depending on who gets the heavier thunderstorms during Monday night plus the rain that comes in from off the ocean. Tuesday will be a miserable day of rain and along the coast winds will gust to gale force with gales offshore. We do not expect strong winds to spread inland. The tightest pressure gradient will impact Eastern long Island and Southeastern New England. For Southeastern New England we have a high wind watch up there for winds gusting over 50 mph.
The storm starts to pull away early on Wednesday but due to the continued onshore flow, clouds are going to be very stubborn. There also is another storm heading east right behind this one. This leads to more clouds on Thursday and then as low pressure heads into the Appalachians another round of rain, heavy at times will sweep in from the southwest. The blocking pattern will force the second energy underneath us again and we could see rain or showers lingering into Saturday before the second low lifts up to the northeast. Temperatures this week will be struggling in the 50s to near 60 or so (except for Monday as noted earlier) with the persistent onshore flow. Thursday may be the one day where there will be no risk for rain though clouds will be an issue.
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